Last updated: September 2026. Editorial Team — researched using data from PwC and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. See “Sources & Methodology” for our full source list.
Quick Answer
American consumers are planning to keep spending on holiday gifts this year, even as their financial cushion has visibly thinned. PwC’s Holiday Outlook 2026 survey finds consumers expect to spend $708 on average on gifts, a modest 2% dip from last year, even as consumer confidence fell 18.5% year-over-year, according to the University of Michigan’s index. What’s genuinely notable is the gap between sentiment and behavior: the personal saving rate fell sharply from 4.5% in January 2026 to just 2.7% by June 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, suggesting consumers have continued shopping even as their financial buffer has worn considerably thinner over the course of the year.
The Core Numbers, and What They Suggest About Consumer Psychology
PwC’s survey data captures a genuinely specific consumer mindset heading into this holiday season: the instinct this year is to spend carefully while continuing traditions that stand the test of time. Eight in ten consumers plan to adopt a budgeting strategy this season, and 79% say deals and discounts will influence when they actually shop. Despite that cautious framing, the headline spending number remains genuinely reassuring on its face — a 2% dip is a modest pullback, not a dramatic retreat, especially set against an 18.5% year-over-year collapse in consumer confidence over the same period.
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The Savings Rate Collapse Underneath the Spending Numbers
This is arguably the most important, least visible data point in the entire holiday spending picture. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US personal saving rate fell from 4.5% in January 2026 to just 2.7% by June 2026, the point at which PwC’s survey was actually fielded. That’s a genuinely significant decline in a relatively short window, and it reframes what “holiday spending holding roughly steady” actually means in practice: consumers appear to be maintaining their spending habits not because their financial position has stayed strong, but by drawing down an increasingly thin financial buffer to do so.
Travel Spending Is Taking the Real Hit, Not Gift Spending
PwC’s data shows the pullback this season is concentrated in a specific category rather than spread evenly across all holiday spending. The share of consumers planning to travel over the winter holidays is holding relatively steady at 40% in 2026 versus 44% in 2025, with 17% still undecided. But expected travel spend per consumer has dropped considerably, down 24% to $419 from $553 the previous year. That’s a meaningfully sharper contraction than the modest 2% dip in overall gift spending, suggesting consumers facing real budget pressure are making a specific, deliberate trade-off: protecting core gift-giving traditions while cutting back much more aggressively on discretionary travel and experiences.
PwC’s Own Framing of This Trade-Off
PwC’s analysis captures the underlying consumer logic directly: this pullback could say as much about consumers’ financial cushion as it does about the holidays themselves, with the recommended read being to protect what matters most, like gifts and family time, while trimming what doesn’t, like travel and lodging. Combined with elevated fuel prices at the time the survey was fielded, PwC’s analysis frames this season as fundamentally about perceived value rather than simple price sensitivity — where the right promotion at the right moment can meaningfully influence a hesitant shopper’s decision.
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Households With Kids Spend Meaningfully More
PwC’s data breaks down spending expectations by household composition specifically: households with children expect to spend $875 on average, considerably more than the $635 expected by households without children. That gap is worth understanding in context — it likely reflects both a genuinely larger number of gift recipients in households with kids, and the specific social and emotional pressure many parents feel around maintaining consistent holiday experiences for children even during a financially tighter year.
A Broader Backdrop: Persistent Retirement Savings Anxiety
This holiday spending pattern doesn’t exist in isolation from broader household financial anxiety. A separate Employee Benefit Research Institute survey found many Americans remain optimistic about their retirement years generally, but continue facing significant, persistent hurdles in actually saving for retirement, with most retired workers identifying Social Security as central to their financial security specifically. Separately, an Allianz Life survey found 39% of current retirees report being reluctant to spend their retirement savings even after retiring, and 71% of working-age Americans expect to feel similarly reluctant about spending retirement funds once the time comes — a pattern suggesting genuine financial caution runs deeper and further into the future than just this single holiday season’s spending decisions.
What This Pattern Means for Households Planning Their Own Holiday Budget
- A modest, deliberate pullback is a genuinely common and reasonable response right now: With 80% of consumers planning to budget this season, adopting a specific spending plan ahead of time is squarely in line with broader consumer behavior this year.
- Consider trimming travel and discretionary experiences before cutting core gift spending: Survey data shows this is exactly the trade-off most consumers are already making, protecting gift-giving traditions while pulling back more aggressively on travel specifically.
- Be honest with yourself about your actual savings buffer, not just your spending intentions: With the national personal saving rate having fallen sharply during 2026, it’s worth checking whether continuing your typical holiday spending pattern this year means drawing down savings you may want to preserve instead.
- Deals and discounts genuinely matter more to shoppers this year: With 79% of consumers citing deals as influencing when they shop, timing purchases around known promotional periods may offer more genuine savings than in a typical year.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much are Americans expected to spend on holiday gifts in 2026?
PwC’s Holiday Outlook survey projects average gift spending of $708 per consumer, a modest 2% decrease from the prior year.
Has the personal savings rate actually declined this year?
Yes, significantly. The US personal saving rate fell from 4.5% in January 2026 to 2.7% by June 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Are people cutting back on holiday travel as much as gifts?
More so. Expected holiday travel spending dropped 24% to $419 per consumer, a considerably sharper pullback than the modest 2% dip in overall gift spending.
Do households with children spend more during the holidays?
Yes. Households with children expect to spend $875 on average, compared to $635 for households without children.
Sources & Methodology
This article draws on data and reporting from: PwC’s Holiday Outlook 2026 consumer spending and shopping trends survey; the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s personal saving rate data; the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index; the Employee Benefit Research Institute’s retirement savings survey; and Allianz Life’s 2026 Annual Retirement Study. Figures reflect the most recently published data as of this article’s last-updated date.
This article is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.